
Here's a working model of AAPL for all you spreadsheet fans. I had to adjust some of my assumptions after the clean quarter they delivered, full of pleasant surprises. CQ210 earnings impacts to model: raised iPad units, raised iPad ASPs, and lowered iPhone units slightly, cut GM, left Mac units which maybe way too conservative
It's exceedingly rare that I build a detailed model, ala b-school or the sell-side on a stock. But I got to thinking about AAPL the other day when it passed MSFT in market cap. Was that so crazy? I spent about 6 hours on this model. I wanted to figure out how big AAPL could get before things got silly, like when CSCO traded at 80 times earnings at the dot-com bubble peak. MSFT got to over $500B market cap a decade ago. The question is, can AAPL go from $250B to $500B?
If you are becoming a great trader, even if you have years of experience in the business, then you are still trying to improve yourself. What could be a better way than learning about the greatest trade in history?
What follows is my review and recap of "The Greatest Trade Ever." I encourage you most urgently to get this book and read it.
Trends in Vegas and AC could be described as "recovering." I've updated my two page casino business summary since Vegas and AC just released numbers for March this week. (Interesting, Macau can get their numbers out for April already)
Save yourself the trouble of reading the Sands China 8k and read my summary, which also includes Gaming Win over the last few years.
Macau is an amazing place...
I study intently what AT&T is doing. They release a mountain of data, which is very useful for understanding not only the Apple iPhone business, but the entire US wireless industry.
Read my detailed report that is attached - take a look at the charts on the second page.
If the iPhone was ever on the Verizon network, or T-Mobile, or both in the US, the stock symbol for AT&T would fit perfectly- "T" for "Toast!"