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Soybeans To The Extreme
I probably shouldn't post this, because the minute I do, soybeans will probably trade back to $11. Anyway... I am attempting to use three technical methods here to analyze where price may be headed for what seems to be an uber bullish soybeans market.
Human emotion was begging to take over. The "too far too fast" mentality and the "It can't go any higher than this" thoughts were popping into my head. Then I looked at the charts...
Gold in "Go Nowhere" Mode
90% of the time when I am trading gold or any instrument for that matter, the only things I am focused on are my setups, which usually involve the technicals and the tape. Fundamentals, news, correlations, etc are the last things I care about or think about. It appears in this case I will break that trend and focus on golds current correlation with the EURUSD and assume that until the EURUSD resolves its sideways, go nowhere, do nothing pattern, gold is going to do the same and go nowhere....
Anticipating the USDA Grain Stock Report
First off, there will be no fundamental analysis here. Secondly, I am flat going into tomorrows report. So, the only risk I have at this time is that my following analysis will be "wrong." So be it. I would rather wish I was in a trade than wish I was out.
The best thing I can do going into this report is trust my charts and forget there is a report at all, in order to anticiapte the next move in the market, and prepare for it. To the charts...
Crude Oil - The Picture On My Screen
While most are focusing on the geopolitical news and noise from the Midle East, I will stay focused on the chart. It's the only way I know how to keep my mind out of the gutter, and prevent myself from taking emotion based trades.
The Main Thesis of My Trading Plan
Bull? Bear? Who cares?
On a daily basis, the main theme of my trading plan is to get into a "risk free" trade and then catch a runner. After that, I don't care what side of the market I am on. So, how do I do this? The first thing I want to do is take the emotion out of my trading. The way I do this is by defining my risk, ie picking a place I want my stop to be and then scaling out of my trade to reduce my risk and get to a breakeven trade ASAP by hitting my first target and then tightening my stop to breakeven.
Stalking Soybeans Short
Wheat has given its sell signal. Now I am waiting for soybeans to follow.
Charts:
I Can't Fight The Tape
The symmetrical triangle pattern I highlighted last post is playing out and within that pattern it appears we have also formed an inverted head & shoulders bottom with a break away gap. With this gap not filling at this point and showing no signs of doing so, the target remains 1493.5.
Can't Pass This Opportunity Up
I have it in my plan not to day trade the last week of the year and I will stick to that plan. But, as I look over my charts I can't help but notice a potential opportunity setting itself up on a swing basis in the ES that I will not pass up if it presents itself this week, regardless of what a lame duck trading week this will be.
Tradeable and Sustainable Bottom in the Grains Market?
Whether it's short covering or new buyers coming in, the grains market has been showing signs of life and a bullish tone has moved into the tape since Monday. With the combination of new marginal price lows made over the last month and significant momentum divergences in all 3 markets, the potential is there for a significant move to the upside with constructive basis formed and prices making some headway.
Goldilocks Is On The Loose Again
When evaluating a trade, I always like to look at both sides of the coin before making a decision.
Things To Consider:
Major support can lead to significant fading opportunities.
Just because a level is breached doesn't make it the beginning of the end.
The major uptrend since 10/2008 is still intact.
The 200 daily SMA has been broken, and price closed below this level.
Commodity Markets In Trouble Across The Board
Some violent selling took place today and may have caught many off guard. There was pretty significant damage done on most charts if trend lines are important to you, and it now looks like most of the markets I trade and follow are beginning a new leg down for much lower prices. It's been difficult to get on the right side of any trend, mostly because there hasn't been one, but perhaps that is changing.
CORN - Test of 600, then the 572 1/4 low?
Is This A Market For Pigs?
So, I'm sure you've heard the phrase "Bulls make $, bears make $, and pigs get slaughtered." For the sake of making things generic, lets just say the stock market bottomed in March of 09, and made a top in May of 11, and over that time period of 26 months we were in a bull market.
Who Is Going To Get Trapped?
Soybeans and the Nasdaq
These are two very different markets, but will we see the same result in an inverse kind of way?
Soybeans were in a sideways market for roughly 6 months, building and building momentum, finally it broke out to the upside and things were looking great for a higher run, and then...WHOOSH! The air was let out of the sales and the boat sunk.
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