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Tuesday, July 20th, 2010
Thoughts on Historical Multiples and Value Investing
These two are somewhat connected, and let me explain how. Every once in a while, especially around sharper market moves up or down, the TV channels would parade numerous experts who argue if the stock market is overvalued or undervalued. One of the experts' favorite tools is looking at the 30-40-50-60-70 year average/median P/E ratios. Then the expert would inevitably make a pronouncement about the current state.
Tuesday, July 6th, 2010
Launch of the Barbarian Capital Inflation Fund
Today, in partnership with the Davian Letter, we launched the Barbarian Capital Inflation Fund, a reference portfolio-type product that contains several securities that are specifically selected to outperform during increasing and high inflation but with lower volatility than the widely popular commodity investments. During the selection process (a version of the top-down approach), I read a number of historical sources regarding high inflation bouts, from Rome to Weimar to Lat Am and E Europe to the US (70's and '05-'07).
Sunday, July 4th, 2010
Unstructured Thoughts on Structural Problems
Here are some unstructured thoughts on structural problems and malinvestments that I see. As long-time reader know, I belong to the Garage Logic University school of economics.
Tuesday, June 29th, 2010
Tesla Motors: The Risky Fendi Bag of the Highways
Tesla Motors (TSLA) IPO'ed today and rose 40%, underscoring investor enthusiasm for popular perceived "green" investments, underwriting ineptitude, or both. Congratulations to the lottery winners here, and best of luck because you will need it. Here is why:
A Quick Look at Booz Allen Hamilton's S-1 Filing
The market's rebound over the last year+ has brought some "interesting" potential IPOs. Back in February, we had FriendFinder Networks, a company in default, trying to raise cash. These folks own a number of adult-themed social networking sites, including adultfriendfinder, which they claim was among the top traffic-ed sites worldwide. The market events in February shelved this masterpiece. Then in April, a small movie production company called The Film Department filed for an IPO.
A New Partnership Between Barbarian Capital and the Davian Letter
I am very pleased to announce that Barbarian Capital and the Davian Letter are partnering up to offer a new product: the Barbarian Capital Inflation Fund. The Fund will launch around July 1st with the goal of out-performing US inflation with lower volatility than commodity-only investments. Without getting into details regarding the exact portfolio composition and weights, we will focus on liquid traditional and not-so-obvious securities that we believe can accomplish the goal of the Fund.
Long Book Review: Confidence Game (the "Ackman/MBIA book")
In short, I recommend to anyone with an interest in finance to read Christine S. Richards’s Confidence Game, probably better known as “the Ackman/MBIA book.”
Thursday, June 3rd, 2010
Shorting Treasurys In Anticipation of Inflation: Harder Than It Seems
One of the “slam dunk” trades for the inflationist camp has been to short treasury bonds, especially the long ones. On the surface, it makes perfect sense: a fixed income instrument should decline in value when rates rise. Notwithstanding the recent gains in T-prices, along with the commensurate pain for the shorts, this trade is much less of a slam dunk than it appears. Here are my views on why it will be a while before the short LT treasurys trade works the way it is supposed to.
Sunday, April 25th, 2010
GMCR: Why I Worry Little About the Patent Expiration
There is a lot of noise about the expiration of the k-cup patent protection in 2012, and its impact on Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR). Of all the possible problems with GMCR, this one is not a priority, in my view. (I have no position in GMCR but this can change at any time.)
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